ASSESSING THE TRAFFIC RISK ALONG THE MAIN BLACK SEA MARITIME ROUTES

Motivated by the fact that numerous maritime accidents have occurred in the Black Sea, the foundering of commercial ships, but not only, aims to assess the risks that may affect commercial traffic. Considering since 2001 to present, no less than 20 ships have shipwrecked in the Black Sea and five of them in 2017, a general analysis of the causes that have affected these undesirable events is required. In order to identify as accurately as possible the external factors which affected the vessels, the main wave parameters simulated by a wave modelling system implemented in the Black Sea are evaluated, together with the wind fields over the Black Sea basin provided by the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR). Thus, for the geographical area of the ship involved in a major incident, several sets of information that preceded the event, set during the event and another set a few hours after the catastrophe are identified. By studying external factors such as weather conditions, sea parameters, can lead to certain patterns that can be identified before they occur, and that in the future these disasters in the shipping industry are to be prevented. This study is designed to prevent the loss of human lives, commodities and ships in the future, risks in terms of environmental conservation.