When did global warming start? A new baseline for carbon budgeting

被引：10

作者：

Ben Ameur, Hachmi ^{[1
]}

Han, Xuyuan ^{[2
]}

Liu, Zhenya ^{[3
,4
,5
]}

Peillex, Jonathan ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Inseec Grande Ecole, Res Ctr, Inseec U, Paris, France

[2] Ind & Commercial Bank China, Postdoctoral Res Ctr, Beijing 100140, Peoples R China

[3] Renmin Univ China, Sch Finance, Beijing 100872, Peoples R China

[4] Renmin Univ China, China Financial Policy Res Ctr, Beijing 100872, Peoples R China

[5] Aix Marseille Univ, CERGAM, F-13090 Aix En Provence, France

[6] ICD Int Business Sch, 12 rue Alexandre Parodi, F-75010 Paris, France

来源：

ECONOMIC MODELLING | 2022年 / 116卷

关键词：

Global warming; Sustainability; Structural change; Temperature; Stochastic disorder model; CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURES; STOCHASTIC CLIMATE MODELS; WIENER DISORDER PROBLEM; CHANGE-POINT ESTIMATION; ROBERTS PROCEDURES; CO2; CONCENTRATION; DETECTING CHANGES; POISSON-PROCESS; TIME; CIRCULATION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106005

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

The global temperatures over the period 1850-1900 are widely used by academia and policymaker as a pre-industrial baseline to assess global warming, but there remains a clear need for a statistical study. Using Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) and the Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature (HadCET) records, this study builds a stochastic disorder model to determine the pre-industrial periods for regional and global warming. We find that warming in HadCET emerged in 1866-1872 and the average HadCET has increased by 0.48 degrees C thereafter. Warming in BEST began in 1905-1909 and the average BEST has subsequently climbed by 0.8096 degrees C. The comparative analysis demonstrates that our results minimize the risk of false detection. These results will help to improve carbon budgeting and facilitate sustainable development planning.

引用

页数：12

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