Preoperative platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio improves the performance of the international consensus guidelines in predicting malignant pancreatic cystic neoplasms

Introduction: To determine if neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were predictive of malignancy in pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCN), and if these improved the performance of the international consensus guidelines (ICG) in the initial triage of these patients. Methods: 318 patients with surgically-treated suspected PCN were retrospectively reviewed. Malignant neoplasms were defined as neoplasms harbouring invasive carcinoma. The optimal cut-off for NLR and PLR were determined by plotting the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves of NLR/PLR in predicting malignant PCN and utilizing the Youden index. Results: The optimal NLR and PLR cut-offs were determined to be 3.33 and 205, respectively. Univariate analyses demonstrated that symptomatic PCNs, age, obstructive jaundice, presence of solid component, dilatation of main pancreatic duct >= 10 mm, high NLR and high PLR were predictive of a malignant PCN. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that obstructive jaundice, presence of solid component, MPD >= 10 mm and high PLR but not NLR were independent predictors of a malignant PCN. A high PLR significantly predicted invasive carcinoma in patients classified within the ICG(HR) group. Comparison between the ROC curves of the ICG versus ICG plus high PLR in predicting malignant PCN demonstrated a significant improvement in the accuracy of the ICG when PLR was included [AUC 0.784 (95% CI: 0.740 -0.829) vs AUC 0.822 (95% CI: 0.772-0.872) (p = 0.0032)]. Conclusions: High PLR is an independent predictor of malignancy in PCN. The addition of PLR as a criterion to the ICG improved the accuracy of these guidelines in detecting invasive neoplasms. (C) 2016 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.