Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction

被引：182

作者：

Ghil, M. ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
,16
]}

Yiou, P. ^{[5
]}

Hallegatte, S. ^{[6
,7
]}

Malamud, B. D. ^{[8
]}

Naveau, P. ^{[5
]}

Soloviev, A. ^{[9
]}

Friederichs, P. ^{[10
]}

Keilis-Borok, V. ^{[11
,12
]}

Kondrashov, D. ^{[3
,4
]}

Kossobokov, V. ^{[9
]}

Mestre, O. ^{[7
]}

Nicolis, C. ^{[13
]}

Rust, H. W. ^{[5
]}

Shebalin, P. ^{[9
]}

Vrac, M. ^{[5
]}

Witt, A. ^{[8
,14
]}

Zaliapin, I. ^{[15
]}

机构：

[1] Ecole Normale Super, Environm Res & Teaching Inst CERES ERTI, Dept Geosci, CNRS, F-75231 Paris 05, France

[2] Ecole Normale Super, Lab Meteorol Dynam, CNRS, F-75231 Paris 05, France

[3] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA

[4] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Inst Geophys & Planetary Phys, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA

[5] UVSQ, CEA CNRS, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, CE Saclay Orme Merisiers,UMR8212, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France

[6] Ctr Int Rech Environm & Dev, Nogent Sur Marne, France

[7] Meteo France, Toulouse, France

[8] Kings Coll London, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England

[9] Russian Acad Sci, Int Inst Earthquake Predict Theory & Math Geophys, Moscow 117901, Russia

[10] Univ Bonn, Inst Meteorol, D-5300 Bonn, Germany

[11] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Earth & Space Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA

[12] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Inst Geophys & Planetary Phys, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA

[13] Inst Royal Meteorol, Brussels, Belgium

[14] Max Planck Inst Dynam & Self Org, Dept Nonlinear Dynam, Gottingen, Germany

[15] Univ Nevada, Dept Math & Stat, Reno, NV 89557 USA

[16] Ecole Normale Super, IPSL, UMR8539, CNRS, F-75231 Paris 05, France

来源：

NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS | 2011年 / 18卷 / 03期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

LONG-TERM-MEMORY; PROBABILITY WEIGHTED MOMENTS; OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTION; DISTRIBUTED RANDOM-VARIABLES; DETECTING SPATIAL-PATTERNS; SINGULAR-SPECTRUM ANALYSIS; BOOLEAN DELAY EQUATIONS; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; TIME-SERIES; NILE RIVER;

D O I：

10.5194/npg-18-295-2011

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

We review work on extreme events, their causes and consequences, by a group of European and American researchers involved in a three-year project on these topics. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction. Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts.

引用

页码：295 / 350

页数：56

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