Does crime count? Investigating the association between neighbourhood-level crime and recidivism in high-risk parolees

The neighbourhood contexts in which former offenders live following their release from prison has been relatively neglected in recidivism studies. Moreover, the relationship between neighbourhood-level crime and parolee recidivism has received little scholarly attention. This oversight is of concern since high-crime neighbourhoods may influence newly-released prisoners' ability to assimilate and reintegrate effectively within society. In this study, we examine whether neighbourhood-level crime across four different categories (dishonesty, violence, property damage, and drugs and anti-social) predicts individual-level short-term recidivism. Using data from 280 high-risk male parolees returning to neighbourhoods throughout New Zealand between 2010 and 2013 we examine whether neighbourhood-level crime is associated with their reconviction. Results showed no significant associations between crime and short-term recidivism after controlling for various potential individual and neighbourhood-level confounds. We contrast the surprising results of the research with the predominantly US-centric recidivism literature, and identify and discuss possible explanations for our non-significant findings.