How Dependent Are the Baltic States on Russia?

This article explores the impact of international trade on private investment in the three post-Soviet Baltic statesEstonia, Latvia and Lithuaniaby applying the business cycle synchronisation theory and highlighting the importance of big neighbours for small open economies. The study covers 1995-2015. The study shows that changes in the GDP growth of trading partners can have a greater effect on domestic private investment in small open economies than GDP changes in their own economies. The ongoing business cycle synchronisation between Russia and the Baltic countries means that the impact of Russia as a big neighbour remains an important issue for the latter.