Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

被引:145
作者
Gao, Tao [1 ,3 ]
Wang, Huixia Judy [2 ]
Zhou, Tianjun [1 ]
机构
[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
[2] George Washington Univ, Dept Stat, Washington, DC 20052 USA
[3] Heze Univ, Dept Resources & Environm, Heze 274000, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金; 美国国家科学基金会; 中国博士后科学基金;
关键词
Bayesian dynamic linear regression; Extreme precipitation; Generalized additive models; Monsoon regions; China; ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON; INDIAN-OCEAN DIPOLE; DAILY TEMPERATURE; EL-NINO; RAINFALL; VARIABILITY; ENSO; OSCILLATION; CIRCULATION; FREQUENCY;
D O I
10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.07.017
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are well understood to be major drivers for the variability of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC, and assess the time-varying influences of the climate drivers using Bayesian dynamic linear regression and their combined nonlinear effects through fitting generalized additive models. Results suggest that the central-east and south China is dominated by less frequent but more intense precipitation. Extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, coupled with a significant decline of dry spells, indicating an increasing chance of occurrence of flood-induced disasters in the MRC during 1960-2014. Majority of the regional indices display some abrupt shifts during the 1990s. The influences of climate variables on monsoon extremes exhibit distinct interannual or interdecadal variations. IOD, ENSO and AMO have strong impacts on monsoon and extreme precipitation, especially during the 1990s, which is generally consistent with the abrupt shifts in precipitation regimes around this period. Moreover, ENSO mainly affects moderate rainfalls and dry spells, while IOD has a more significant impact on precipitation extremes. These findings could be helpful for improving the forecasting of monsoon extremes in China and the evaluations of climate models.
引用
收藏
页码:379 / 389
页数:11
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