Comparison of three mathematical prediction models in patients with a solitary pulmonary nodule

被引:17
作者
Zhang, Xuan
Yan, Hong-Hong
Lin, Jun-Tao
Wu, Ze-Hua
Liu, Jia
Cao, Xu-Wei
Yang, Xue-Ning [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Guangdong Gen Hosp, Guangdong Lung Canc Inst, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Translat Med Lung Canc, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong, Peoples R China
[2] Guangdong Acad Med Sci, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong, Peoples R China
关键词
Solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN); benign and malignant; model; comparison; PROBABILITY; MALIGNANCY; VALIDATION;
D O I
10.3978/j.issn.1000-9604.2014.11.02
中图分类号
R73 [肿瘤学];
学科分类号
100214 ;
摘要
Background: Effective methods for managing patients with solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs) depend critically on the predictive probability of malignancy. Methods: Between July 2009 and June 2011, data on gender, age, cancer history, tumor familial history, smoking status, tumor location, nodule size, spiculation, calcification, the tumor border, and the final pathological diagnosis were collected retrospectively from 154 surgical patients with an SPN measuring 3-30 mm Each final diagnosis was compared with the probability calculated by three predicted models the Mayo, VA, and Peking University (PU) models. The accuracy of each model was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and calibration curves. Results: The area under the ROC curve of the PU model [0.800; 95% confidence interval (Cl): 0.708-0.891] was higher than that of the Mayo model (0.753; 95% CI: 0.650-0.857) or VA model (0.728; 95% CI: 0.6230.833); however, this finding was not statistically significant. To varying degrees, calibration curves showed that all three models overestimated malignancy. Conclusions: The three predicted models have similar accuracy for prediction of SPN malignancy, although the accuracy is not sufficient. For Chinese patients, the PU model may has greater predictive power.
引用
收藏
页码:647 / 652
页数:6
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