A mathematical model of HIV transmission in NSW prisons

被引：10
作者：
Dolan, K [1 ]
Wodak, A
Hall, W
Kaplan, E
机构：
[1] Univ New S Wales, Natl Drug & Alcohol Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
[2] St Vincents Hosp, Alcohol & Drug Serv, Sydney, NSW 2010, Australia
[3] Yale Univ, Sch Management, New Haven, CT USA
来源：
DRUG AND ALCOHOL DEPENDENCE | 1998年 / 50卷 / 03期
关键词：
HIV transmission; prison; mathematical model; injecting; syringe sharing;
D O I：
10.1016/S0376-8716(98)00009-X
中图分类号：
R194 [卫生标准、卫生检查、医药管理];
学科分类号：
摘要：
A mathematical model was developed to estimate HIV incidence in NSW prisons. Data included: duration of imprisonment; number of inmates using each needle; lower and higher number of shared injections per IDU per week; proportion of IDUs using bleach; efficacy of bleach; HIV prevalence and probability of infection. HIV prevalence in IDUs in prison was estimated to have risen from 0.8 to 5.7% (12.2%) over 180 weeks when using lower (and higher) values for frequency of shared injections. The estimated minimum (and maximum) number of IDU inmates infected with HIV in NSW prisons was 38 (and 152) in 1993 according to the model. These figures require confirmation by seroincidence studies. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：197 / 202
页数：6
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