Structural heterogeneity and precision of implications drawn from cryo-electron microscopy structures: SARS-CoV-2 spike-protein mutations as a test case

Protein structures may be used to draw functional implications at the residue level, but how sensitive are these implications to the exact structure used? Calculation of the effects of SARS-CoV-2 S-protein mutations based on experimental cryo-electron microscopy structures have been abundant during the pandemic. To understand the precision of such estimates, we studied three distinct methods to estimate stability changes for all possible mutations in 23 different S-protein structures (3.69 million Delta Delta G values in total) and explored how random and systematic errors can be remedied by structure-averaged mutation group comparisons. We show that computational estimates have low precision, due to method and structure heterogeneity making results for single mutations uninformative. However, structure-averaged differences in mean effects for groups of substitutions can yield significant results. Illustrating this protocol, functionally important natural mutations, despite individual variations, average to a smaller stability impact compared to other possible mutations, independent of conformational state (open, closed). In summary, we document substantial issues with precision in structure-based protein modeling and recommend sensitivity tests to quantify these effects, but also suggest partial solutions to the problem in the form of structure-averaged "ensemble" estimates for groups of residues when multiple structures are available.