Probabilistic Life Prediction for Crack Initiation on Coke Drums Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

被引：0

作者：

Ye, Wei-Wen ^{[1
]}

Wang, Wen-Feng ^{[1
]}

Ning, Zhi-Hua ^{[2
]}

Liu, Ren-Huai ^{[2
]}

Wang, Fan ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Guangzhou Special Pressure Equipment Inspect & Re, Guangzhou 510663, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[2] Jinan Univ, Coll Mech & Construct Engn, Guangzhou 510632, Guangdong, Peoples R China

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE 3RD ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MECHANICS AND MECHANICAL ENGINEERING (MME 2016) | 2017年 / 105卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Coke drum; Crack initiation; Monte carlo simulation; Probabilistic life;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];

学科分类号：

0812 ;

摘要：

High thermal stresses developed in coke drums can lead to fatigue crack initiation and subsequently growth until premature drum failure. To predict the fatigue crack initiation lives of coke drums, a cost-efficient method was proposed using Monte Carlo simulation in this paper. Strain data on the critical location of the drum wall was collected through the field measurement. Then statistical analysis was performed to build the probabilistic model of strain amplitude distribution. Large number of strain data could be generated by sampling on the basis of the probabilistic model. The fatigue crack initiation life was calculated according to Manson-Coffin equation and Palmgren-Miner's cumulative damage rule. The crack initiation was predicted probabilistically and the predicting result was in good agreement with the inspection history. The method developed in the present study is expected to be helpful for the future maintenance and inspection of coke drums.

引用

页码：193 / 198

页数：6