Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design

被引：36

作者：

Onozuka, Daisuke ^{[1
]}

Tanoue, Yuta ^{[2
,3
]}

Nomura, Shuhei ^{[3
,4
]}

Kawashima, Takayuki ^{[3
,5
]}

Yoneoka, Daisuke ^{[3
,4
,6
]}

Eguchi, Akifumi ^{[3
,7
]}

Ng, Chris Fook Sheng ^{[8
]}

Matsuura, Kentaro ^{[9
,10
]}

Shi, Shoi ^{[11
,12
]}

Makiyama, Koji ^{[10
]}

Uryu, Shinya ^{[13
]}

Kawamura, Yumi ^{[14
]}

Takayanagi, Shinichi ^{[10
]}

Gilmour, Stuart ^{[6
]}

Hayashi, Takehiko, I ^{[15
]}

Miyata, Hiroaki ^{[3
]}

Sera, Francesco ^{[16
]}

Sunagawa, Tomimasa ^{[17
]}

Takahashi, Takuri ^{[17
]}

Tsuchihashi, Yuuki ^{[17
]}

Kobayashi, Yusuke ^{[17
]}

Arima, Yuzo ^{[17
]}

Kanou, Kazuhiko ^{[17
]}

Suzuki, Motoi ^{[17
]}

Hashizume, Masahiro ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Kyoto Prefectural Univ Med, Grad Sch Med Sci, Dept Med Informat & Clin Epidemiol, Kyoto, Japan

[2] Waseda Univ, Inst Business & Finance, Tokyo, Japan

[3] Keio Univ, Sch Med, Dept Hlth Policy & Management, Tokyo, Japan

[4] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Med, Dept Global Hlth Policy, Tokyo, Japan

[5] Tokyo Inst Technol, Dept Math & Comp Sci, Tokyo, Japan

[6] St Lukes Int Univ, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, Tokyo, Japan

[7] Chiba Univ, Ctr Prevent Med Sci, Dept Sustainable Hlth Sci, Chiba, Japan

[8] Nagasaki Univ, Sch Trop Med & Global Hlth, Nagasaki, Japan

[9] Tokyo Univ Sci, Grad Sch Engn, Dept Management Sci, Tokyo, Japan

[10] HOXO M Inc, Tokyo, Japan

[11] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Med, Dept Syst Pharmacol, Tokyo, Japan

[12] RIKEN Ctr Biosyst Dynam Res, Lab Synthet Biol, Osaka, Japan

[13] Natl Inst Environm Studies NIES, Ctr Environm Biol & Ecosyst Studies, Tokyo, Japan

[14] RIKEN Ctr Sustainable Resource Sci, Saitama, Japan

[15] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Hlth & Environm Risk Res, Ibaraki, Japan

[16] Univ Florence, Dept Stat Comp Sci & Applicat G Parenti, Florence, Italy

[17] Natl Inst Infect Dis, Infect Dis Surveillance Ctr, Tokyo, Japan

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY | 2022年 / 51卷 / 01期

基金：

日本学术振兴会;

关键词：

All-cause death; COVID-19; excess mortality; Japan; two-stage interrupted time-series design; CORONAVIRUS DISEASE; SOCIAL-ISOLATION; RISK-FACTORS; EXCESS DEATHS; METAANALYSIS; LONELINESS; REGRESSION;

D O I：

10.1093/ije/dyab216

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group. Methods Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level. Results In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of -20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -38 367 to -5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of -1.7% (95% eCI: -3.1 to -0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged Conclusions All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.

引用

页码：75 / 84

页数：10

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[1] Estimating the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England and Wales: a population-level analysis [J].