Development and Validation of a Competitive Risk Model in Elderly Patients With Chromophobe Cell Renal Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study

被引：6

作者：

Wang, Jinkui ^{[1
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Zhanghuang, Chenghao ^{[1
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Tan, Xiaojun ^{[1
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Mi, Tao ^{[1
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Liu, Jiayan ^{[1
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Jin, Liming ^{[1
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Li, Mujie ^{[1
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Zhang, Zhaoxia ^{[1
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He, Dawei ^{[1
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机构：

[1] Chongqing Med Univ, Dept Urol, Childrens Hosp, Chongqing, Peoples R China

[2] Chongqing Key Lab Children Urogenital Dev & Tissu, Chongqing, Peoples R China

[3] Chongqing Key Lab Pediat, Chongqing, Peoples R China

[4] Minist Educ, Key Lab Child Dev & Disorders, Chongqing, Peoples R China

[5] Natl Clin Res Ctr Child Hlth & Disorders, Chongqing, Peoples R China

[6] China Int Sci & Technol Cooperat Base Child Dev &, Chongqing, Peoples R China

[7] Chongqing Med Univ, Childrens Hosp, Chongqing, Peoples R China

[8] Kunming Childrens Hosp, Dept Urol, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China

[9] Yunnan Prov Key Res Lab Pediat Major Dis, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China

来源：

FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH | 2022年 / 10卷

关键词：

competitive risk model; nomogram; elderly; chromophobe cell renal carcinoma; SEER; RADICAL NEPHRECTOMY; CANCER; SURVIVAL; TUMORS; GUIDELINES; NOMOGRAMS; MORTALITY; KINETICS; MASSES;

D O I：

10.3389/fpubh.2022.840525

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

BackgroundRenal cell carcinoma (RCC) is the most common renal malignancy in adults, and chromophobe renal cell carcinoma (chRCC) is the third most common subtype of RCC. We aimed to construct a competitive risk model to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly patients with chRCC. MethodsThe clinicopathological information of the patients was downloaded from the SEER database, and the patients were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts. Patients' risk factors for cancer-specific death (CSM) were analyzed using proportional subdistribution hazard (SH). We constructed a competitive risk model to predict the CSS of elderly chRCC patients. Consistency index (C-index), the area under receiver operating curve (AUC), and a calibration curve were used to validate the model's accuracy. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to test the clinical value of the model. ResultsA total of 3,522 elderly patients with chRCC were included in the analysis. Patients were randomly assigned to either the training cohort (N = 2,474) or the validation cohort (N = 1,048). SH analysis found that age, race, T, N, and M stage, tumor size, and surgery were risk factors for CSM. We constructed a competitive risk model to predict patients' CSS. In the training set, the model predicted patients' 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS with C-indices of 82.2, 80.8, and 78.2, respectively. The model predicted patient 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS in the validation cohort with C-indices of 84.7, 83.4, and 76.9, respectively. The calibration curve showed that the model's predicted value is almost consistent with the observed value, which indicated that the model has good accuracy. The AUC of the training set and validation queue also suggested that the model has good discrimination. The clinical utility of the DCA model in predicting patients' CSS is higher than that of traditional TNM staging. ConclusionsWe constructed a competitive risk model to predict CSS in elderly patients with chRCC. The model has good accuracy and reliability, which can help doctors and patients to make clinical decisions and follow-up strategies.

引用

页数：10

共 46 条

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