The impact of climate change on winter road maintenance and traffic accidents in West Midlands, UK

被引:132
作者
Andersson, Anna K. [1 ]
Chapman, Lee [2 ]
机构
[1] Gothenburg Univ, Dept Earth Sci Ctr, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden
[2] Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England
关键词
Road surface temperature; Road traffic accident; Winter road maintenance; Climate change; Temporal analogue; Weather generator; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE; WEATHER GENERATOR;
D O I
10.1016/j.aap.2010.08.025
中图分类号
TB18 [人体工程学];
学科分类号
1201 ;
摘要
Winter weather can be a significant cause of road traffic accidents. This paper uses UKCIP climate change scenarios and a temporal analogue to investigate the relationship between temperature and severe road accidents in the West Midlands, UK. This approach also allows quantification of the changes in the severity of the winter season over the next century in the region. It is demonstrated that the predicted reduction in the number of frost days should in turn reduce the number of road accidents caused due to slipperiness by approximately 50%. However, the paper concludes by warning against complacency in winter maintenance regimes. A warmer climate may result in budget cuts for highway maintenance which in turn may well reverse declining accident trends. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:284 / 289
页数:6
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