Decision-Making in Childhood Predicts Prodromal Eating Pathology in Adolescence

Objective: Differences in decision-making under conditions of risk have been observed cross-sectionally in clinical groups of people with eating disorders but have never been studied longitudinally or in large cohorts. We investigated whether responses on the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT), measured in the Millennium Cohort Study in childhood, would predict prodromal eating pathology in adolescence. Method: Regression models were built to explore relationships between CGT variables at age 11 years and prodromal eating pathology (body dissatisfaction, intention to lose weight, dietary restriction, significant under/overweight, and excessive exercise) at 14 years. Results: In 11,303 boys and girls, those with better quality decision-making were 34% less likely to show an intention to lose weight (b = -0.40, odds ratio [OR] = 0.66, p < 0.05) and 34% less likely to be overweight (b = -0.41, relative risk ratio [RRR] = 0.66, p < 0.05). Those with higher risk-taking were 58% more likely to report dietary restriction (b = 0.45, OR = 1.58, p < 0.05) and 46% more likely to report excessive exercise (b = 0.38, OR = 1.46, p < 0.05). In the complete-cases sample, higher risk-adjustment scores were associated with a 47% increased risk of underweight (b = 0.39, RRR = 1.47, p < 0.05), and better quality of decision-making was associated with a 46% lower risk of overweight (b = -0.60, RRR = 0.54, p < 0.05). Conclusion: Disadvantageous decision-making in childhood may predict prodromal eating pathology in adolescence and might represent a prevention target.