Changing freshwater contributions to the Arctic: A 90-year trend analysis (1981-2070)

被引:28
作者
Stadnyk, Tricia A. [1 ,2 ]
Tefs, A. [1 ]
Broesky, M. [2 ]
Dery, S. J. [3 ]
Myers, P. G. [4 ]
Ridenour, N. A. [4 ]
Koenig, K. [5 ]
Vonderbank, L. [6 ]
Gustafsson, D. [7 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calgary, Dept Geog, Calgary, AB, Canada
[2] Univ Manitoba, Dept Civil Engn, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
[3] Univ Northern British Columbia, Environm Sci & Engn Program, Prince George, BC, Canada
[4] Univ Alberta, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Edmonton, AB, Canada
[5] Manitoba Hydro Hydrol & Hydroclimat Studies Sect, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
[6] Univ Calgary, Dept Civil Engn, Calgary, AB, Canada
[7] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Hydrol Res Unit, Norrkoping, Folkborgsvagen, Sweden
来源
ELEMENTA-SCIENCE OF THE ANTHROPOCENE | 2021年 / 9卷 / 01期
基金
加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;
关键词
Arctic; Freshwater discharge; Climate change; Trend analysis; Ocean modeling; BaySys; CLIMATE-CHANGE; OCEAN STRATIFICATION; RIVER DISCHARGE; HUDSON-BAY; LENA RIVER; RUNOFF; GREENLAND; IMPACT; MODEL; FRAGMENTATION;
D O I
10.1525/elementa.2020.00098
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
The pan-Arctic domain is undergoing some of Earth's most rapid and significant changes resulting from anthropogenic and climate-induced alteration of freshwater distribution. Changes in terrestrial freshwater discharge entering the Arctic Basin from pan-Arctic watersheds significantly impact oceanic circulation and sea ice dynamics. Historical streamflow records in high-latitude basins are often discontinuous (seasonal or with large temporal gaps) or sparse (poor spatial coverage), however, making trends from observed records difficult to quantify. Our objectives were to generate a more continuous 90-year record (1981-2070) of spatially distributed freshwater flux for the Arctic Basin (all Arctic draining rivers, including the Yukon), suitable for forcing ocean models, and to analyze the changing simulated trends in freshwater discharge across the domain. We established these data as valid during the historical period (1971-2015) and then used projected futures (preserving uncertainty by running a coupled climate-hydrologic ensemble) to analyze long-term (2021-2070) trends for major Arctic draining rivers. When compared to historic trends reported in the literature, we find that trends are projected to nearly double by 2070, with river discharge to the Arctic Basin increasing by 22% (on average) by 2070. We also find a significant trend toward earlier onset of spring freshet and a general flattening of the average annual hydrograph, with a trend toward decreasing seasonality of Arctic freshwater discharge with climate change and regulation combined. The coupled climate-hydrologic ensemble was then used to force an ocean circulation model to simulate freshwater content and thermohaline circulation. This research provides the marine research community with a daily time series of historic and projected freshwater discharge suitable for forcing sea ice and ocean models. Although important, this work is only a first step in mapping the impacts of climate change on the pan-Arctic region.
引用
收藏
页数:26
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