Development of prognostic predictive model with neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients with gastric signet ring carcinoma

The risk factors have not been well-defined for prognosis in gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (GSRC) patients. This study is designed to prognosticate survival in GSRC patients by establishing and verifying a predictive model with neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). A total of 147 GSRC patients from Department of Surgical Oncology, Neimenggu Baogang Hospital, Inner Mongolia Medical University were retrospectively reviewed. A predictive model was established using Cox proportional hazards. The performance of the model was evaluated by ROC curves. In present study, we found that overall survival (OS) (P < .001, Fig. 1A) and tumor recurrence rate (P= .036, Fig. 1B) in the NLR < 2.8 group were significantly better than those in the NLR > 2.8 group. These results showed that NLR < 2.8 was significant prognostic factor related with both OS and tumor recurrence in patients with GSRC. After adjusting for competing risk factors, NLR < 2.8 (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.625, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.505-5.3166, P = .003), tumor size (HR: 3.024, 95% CI: 1.521-4.186, P = .005), and tumor metastasis (HR: 3.303, 95% CI: 1.25-4.525, P= .012) remained independent predictors of tumor recurrence rate and OS. Our results showed that comparing with the model without NLR (area under ROC curve: 0.798), the model with NLR (area under ROC curve: 0.826) had significant better predictive power than the model without NLR, which further confirmed the value of NLR in predicting prognosis of patients with GSRC. In conclusion, a high NLR value independently predicts poor survival in patients with GSRC after surgery. The NLR may help oncologists evaluate outcomes of patients received surgical resection and chemotherapy in order to choose alternative therapies for patients with high NLR value.