Establishing a prediction model for prostate cancer bone metastasis

We collected clinical data from 308 prostate cancer (PCa) patients to investigate the clinical characteristics and independent risk factors of bone metastasis (BM) and to establish a prediction model for BM of PCa and determine the necessity of bone scans. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed based on age, biopsy Gleason score (BGS), clinical tumor stage (cTx), total prostate specific antigen (tPSA), free prostate specific antigen (fPSA), fPSA/tPSA, prostate volume, alkaline phosphatase (ALP), serum calcium and serum phosphorus. Moreover, 80 of the 308 PCa patients had a PI-RADS v2 score and were analysed retrospectively. The univariate analysis showed that the BGS, cTx, tPSA, fPSA, prostate volume and ALP were significant. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed significant differences among the BGS, cTx, tPSA and ALP. Four cases should be highly suspected with BM: (i) cTI-cT2, BGS <= 7, ALP >120 U/L and tPSA >90.64 ng/ml; (ii) cTI-cT2, BGS >= 8, and ALP >120 U/L; (iii) cT3-cT4, BGS <= 7, and ALP >120 U/L; and (iv) cT3-cT4 and BGS >= 8. After the PI-RADS v2 score was included in the model, the AUC of the prediction model rose from 0.884 (95% CI: 0.813-0.996) to 0.934 (95% CI: 0.883-0.986). This model may help determine the necessity of bone scans to diagnose BM for PCa patients.