Risk factors for the flare of systemic lupus erythematosus and its influence on prognosis: a single-center retrospective analysis

Objectives To explore the risk factors for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flare and their impact on prognosis. Methods The clinical characteristics, laboratory results, and treatment plans of 121 patients with SLE flare were retrospectively analyzed. Ninety-eight SLE outpatients with sustained remission during the same period were selected as controls. Logistic multivariate regression analysis was employed to screen for risk factors for SLE flare. Results Infection, thrombocytopenia, arthritis, anti-nucleosome antibodies positive, anti-beta 2-glycoprotein I (IgG) antibodies positive, and patient's self-discontinuation of medicine maintenance therapy might be risk factors for SLE flare. Patients who discontinued medicine maintenance therapy by themselves had a significantly higher rate of severe SLE flare than patients with regular medicine maintenance therapy (P = 0.033). The incidence of anemia associated with SLE (P = 0.001), serositis (P = 0.005), and pulmonary hypertension (P = 0.003) in patients who discontinued medicine maintenance therapy were significantly higher than patients with regular medicine maintenance therapy. SLE patients with regular medicine maintenance therapy for less than 3 years had a higher risk of pulmonary hypertension than those with regular medicine maintenance therapy longer than 3 years (P = 0.034). Conclusions The accompanying thrombocytopenia, arthritis, anti-nucleosome antibodies positive and anti-beta 2-glycoprotein I (IgG) antibodies positive at the onset of SLE may affect the prognosis of SLE. Patient's self-discontinuation of medicine maintenance therapy is the main cause of SLE flare, which may induce severe flare in SLE patients and lead to a significantly higher incidence of pulmonary hypertension.