Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants

被引:53
作者
Klügel, JU [1 ]
机构
[1] Kernkraftwerk Goesgen Daeniken, CH-4658 Daeniken, Switzerland
关键词
seismic hazard analysis; nuclear power plants; attenuation laws; uncertainty analysis;
D O I
10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.01.007
中图分类号
P5 [地质学];
学科分类号
0709 ; 081803 ;
摘要
From 2000 to 2004 a large scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PEGASOS) was created and performed as a research project, sponsored by the Swiss NPP utilities to improve the assessment methodology for seismic risk in support of the plant-specific seismic PRAs. The project followed the methodology of the SSHAC [Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC), 1997. Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. NU-REG/CR-6372] procedures at its most elaborate way-level 4. Before practical implementation was to occur, a detailed review was performed including validation tests and analysis of uncertainty propagation. This paper presents the main results of the review. The review revealed that current PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) methodology as based on logic trees, in conjunction with the SSHAC procedures, potentially leads to a significant overestimation of the seismic hazard in areas with low seismic activity due to the inherent possibilities of unconstrained accumulation of uncertainties. The preliminary results of the project did not pass any of our logical geological-scientific benchmark tests used in our attempts to perform a validation process of the PEGASOS analysis method. Some of the problems encountered are of generic nature and shall be studied carefully before making the decision of whether or not the Swiss nuclear power industry will adopt the recommended use of SSHAC-procedures as a basis for the evaluation of the seismic hazard for individual nuclear power plant seismic PRA without correction. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:285 / 307
页数:23
相关论文
共 50 条
[41]   Innovative Development and Application of a Stress-Strength Model for Reliability Estimation of Aged LV Cables for Nuclear Power Plants [J].
Fabiani, D. ;
Mazzanti, G. ;
Suraci, S., V ;
Diban, B. .
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON DIELECTRICS AND ELECTRICAL INSULATION, 2021, 28 (06) :2083-2090
[42]   Simplified methods to estimate mean hazard due to updated ground motion model: Application to nuclear power plants in CEUS [J].
Talaat, Mohamed M. ;
Seifried, Andrew ;
Anup, Abhinav ;
Hardy, Gregory S. ;
Richards, John M. .
EARTHQUAKE SPECTRA, 2021, 37 (1_SUPPL) :1550-1578
[43]   A Dynamical Study for Earthquakes of Seismic Safety Assessment in Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) Using the System Dynamics (SD) Method [J].
Woo, T. -H. ;
Lee, S. -H. .
ENERGY SOURCES PART A-RECOVERY UTILIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS, 2012, 34 (10) :948-958
[44]   Temperature gradient method for extracting background temperature and calculating temperature rise area of nuclear power plants' thermal discharge [J].
Guo, Xinglong ;
Li, Guoqing ;
Wang, Luyan ;
Sui, Chao ;
Zhu, Jun ;
Shi, Hongyuan ;
Zhan, Chao ;
Wang, Qing .
PROGRESS IN NUCLEAR ENERGY, 2025, 187
[45]   A study on assigning performance shaping factors of the SPAR-H method for adequacy human reliability analysis of nuclear power plants [J].
Liu, Jianqiao ;
Zou, Yanhua ;
Wang, Wei ;
Zhang, Li ;
Qing, Tao ;
Zheng, Tengjiao ;
Ding, Qianqiao .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ERGONOMICS, 2021, 81 (81)
[46]   Verification and validation optimization method for signal quality bits in digital control system application software of nuclear power plant [J].
Wang, Lingzhi ;
Wu, Yichun .
KERNTECHNIK, 2024, 89 (03) :301-315
[47]   Domain- and task-analytic workload (DTAW) method: a methodology for predicting mental workload during severe accidents in nuclear power plants [J].
Liu, Yang ;
Gao, Qin ;
Wu, Man .
ERGONOMICS, 2023, 66 (02) :261-290
[48]   Design Method of Some Results of Investigation of the Model of an Axial Main Circulation Pump for High Capacity Reactor Blocks of Nuclear Power Plants. [J].
Val'chuk, V.S. ;
Golikov, V.A. ;
Kuzina, A.I. ;
Papir, A.N. ;
Shkarbul', S.N. .
Trudy LPI, 1981, (374) :16-20
[49]   Imbalanced data fault diagnosis method for nuclear power plants based on convolutional variational autoencoding Wasserstein generative adversarial network and random forest [J].
Guo, Jun ;
Wang, Yulong ;
Sun, Xiang ;
Liu, Shiqiao ;
Du, Baigang .
NUCLEAR ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, 2024, 56 (12) :5055-5067
[50]   Digging deeper! Insights from a multi-method assessment of safety culture in nuclear power plants based on Schein's culture model [J].
Schobel, Markus ;
Klostermann, Anne ;
Lassalle, Ruth ;
Beck, Johannes ;
Manzey, Dietrich .
SAFETY SCIENCE, 2017, 95 :38-49