Death after surgery among patients with chronic disease: prospective study of routinely collected data in the English NHS

Background: Five million surgeries take place in the NHS each year. Little is known about the prevalence of chronic diseases among these patients, and the association with postoperative outcomes. Methods: Analysis of routine data from all NHS hospitals in England including patients aged >= 18 yr undergoing non-obstetric surgery between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. The primary outcome was death within 90 days after surgery. For each chronic disease, we adjusted for age, sex, presence of other diseases, emergency surgery, and year using logistic regression models. We defined high-risk diseases as those with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) for death >= 2 and report associated 2-yr survival. Results: We included 8 624 611 patients (median age, 53 [36-68] yr), of whom 6 913 451 (80.2%) underwent elective surgery and 1 711 160 (19.8%) emergency surgery. Overall, 2 311 600 (26.8%) patients had a chronic disease, of whom 109 686 (4.7%) died within 90 days compared with 24 136 (0.4%) of 6 313 011 without chronic disease. Respiratory disease (1 002 281 [11.6%]), diabetes mellitus (662 706 [7.7%]), and cancer (310 363; 3.6%) were the most common. Four chronic diseases accounted for 7.7% of patients but 59.0% of deaths: cancer (37 693 deaths [12.1%]; OR=8.3 [8.2-8.5]), liver disease (8638 deaths [10.3%]; OR=4.5 [4.4-4.7]), cardiac failure (26 604 deaths [12.6%]; OR=2.4 [2.4-2.5]), and dementia (19 912 deaths [17.9%]; OR=2.0 [1.9-2.0]). Two-year survival was 67.7% among patients with high-risk chronic disease, compared with 97.1% without. Conclusion: One in four surgical patients has a chronic disease with an associated 10-fold increase in risk of postoperative death. Two-thirds of all deaths after surgery occur among patients with high-risk diseases (cancer, cardiac failure, liver disease, dementia).