Contrasting climate influences on Nothofagus pumilio establishment along elevational gradients

Predicted warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme climatic events in the southern Andes may affect the dynamics of the Patagonian forests. These environmental changes may differentially alter the probability of Nothofagus pumilio establishment across its altitudinal range of distribution. We monitored fruit fall, seedling emergence and survival at altitudinal distribution range of N. pumilio forests in Santa Cruz (49 degrees 22' S-72 degrees 56' W), Argentina. Fruit fall, seedling emergence and survival were tested in relation to drought, based on the SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index), interacting with elevation. Fruit fall was consistently higher at low elevation and the abundance of fruits was not affected by drought intensity. Density of new-born seedlings was similar to 9 to 24 times lower at low- than at high-elevation plots in our first observations (2014 and 2016), characterized by warm-dry climatic conditions in spring-early summers. In contrast, seedling abundance was similar to 1.5 times larger at low elevations during relatively cold-wet growing seasons. Survival probability was explained by the interaction between SPEI and elevation. At low elevation and in dry periods, survival probability was lower (CI 54-72%) than in wet periods (CI 68-84%) but at high elevation similar survival was registered even with positive or negative SPEI values. Our results show interacting effects of elevation and drought on tree establishment at the elevation limits, with positive and negative drought effects at high and low elevations, respectively. Predicted increase of extreme drought events during the XXI century could be detrimental for N. pumilio establishment at dry, low-elevation forests.