The transmission dynamics of the aetiological agent of scrapie in a sheep flock

被引：28

作者：

Hagenaars, TJ ^{[1
]}

Donnelly, CA ^{[1
]}

Ferguson, NM ^{[1
]}

Anderson, RM ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, WTCEID, Oxford OX1 3FY, England

来源：

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES | 2000年 / 168卷 / 02期

基金：

英国惠康基金;

关键词：

scrapie; transmission dynamics; basic reproduction number; epidemic model; vertical transmission;

D O I：

10.1016/S0025-5564(00)00048-1

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

We formulate and investigate the properties of a model framework to mimic the transmission dynamics of the aetiological agent of scrapie in a sheep hock. We derive expressions for summary parameters that characterize transmission scenarios, notably the basic reproduction number R-0 and the mean generation time T-g. The timescale of epidemic outbreaks is expressed in terms of R-0 and cumulants of the generation time distribution. We discuss the relative contributions to the overall rate of transmission of horizontal and vertical routes during invasion and in endemicity. Simplified models are used to obtain analytical insight into the characteristics of the endemic state. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：117 / 135

页数：19

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