Predictive model of failure of outpatient laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Introduction: The aim of our study was to review our experience and to determine a predictive model of factors for unanticipated admissions after ambulatory laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC). Materials and Methods: Between January 1999 and June 2003, 410 consecutive LCs were performed as outpatient procedures. We performed univariate analysis and logistic regression models of preoperative and intraoperative variables. The scoring system developed allowed calculating the ambulatorization probability of LC in-each patient. Validation and calibration of the model were realized by means of Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: Three hundred sixty-three patients were strictly ambulatory (86.8%). Forty-two patients required overnight admission (10.2%), most of them because of social factors, and 5 patients were admitted. Predictive factors related to overnight stay or admission were: age of patient over 65 years [P = 0.021; odds ratio (OR) = 2.225; 95% confidence interval (0), 1.130-4.381], operation duration superior to 60 minutes (P = 0.046; OR = 2.403; 95% CI, 1.106-5.685), and "dissection difficulty" intraoperative score superior to 6 (P = 0.034; OR 3.063; 95% CI 1.086-8.649). The right classification index of the predictive system was 91.7%, reaching a sensibility of 99.7% and specificity of 31.9%. Conclusions: Outpatient LC is safe and feasible. Age of the patient, operation duration, and complexity of surgical dissection during LC are independent factors influencing ambulatorization rate.