Long-term outcome of chronic hepatitis C in a population-based cohort and impact of antiviral therapy: a propensity-adjusted analysis

This population-based study aimed to assess the determinants of the outcome of chronic hepatitis C with analysis of the impact of antiviral therapy with or without sustained virological response (SVR) on cirrhosis decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver-related and non-liver-related mortality. A total of 1159 HCV-positive patients newly detected between 1994 and 2001 were included. For each outcome, the prognostic effect of patients' baseline characteristics was estimated by time-dependent Cox models using age as the time-scale and adjusting for treatment received during follow-up. The impact of antiviral therapy was assessed by using a propensity score in a sample including 184 patients treated in the first 24 months following diagnosis who were matched to 184 untreated patients. At the end of a 59-month median follow-up, 100 cases of compensated disease, 58 liver cancer and 163 deaths (55 liver related) were recorded. The 5-year rates of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver-related and non-liver-related death were 4.4%, 2.7%, 5.0% and 8.9%, respectively. Multivariate analyses identified two variables with pejorative influence: alcohol consumption (RR = 4.29 for CD; RR = 5.76 for HCC; RR = 6.69 for liver-related death; P < 0.0001); HCV diagnosis unrelated to systematic screening (RR = 2.25 for CD; RR = 3.05 for HCC; RR = 4.31 for liver-related death, P < 0.03). In the matched subset, no significant benefit of antiviral therapy was observed. Nevertheless, among the 144 patients who achieved SVR, no death was observed. This population-based study showed substantial rates of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related mortality. Alcohol consumption and absence of systematic screening were significant determinants of poor outcome, whereas treatment did not have significant influence.