An Integrated Fibrosis Signature for Predicting Survival and Immunotherapy Efficacy of Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Introduction: Fibrosis, a primary cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is intimately associated with inflammation, the tumor microenvironment (TME), and multiple carcinogenic pathways. Currently, due to widespread inter- and intra-tumoral heterogeneity of HCC, the efficacy of immunotherapy is limited. Seeking a stable and novel tool to predict prognosis and immunotherapy response is imperative.Methods: Using stepwise Cox regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and random survival forest algorithms, the fibrosis-associated signature (FAIS) was developed and further validated. Subsequently, comprehensive exploration was conducted to identify distinct genomic alterations, clinical features, biological functions, and immune landscapes of HCC patients.Results: The FAIS was an independent prognostic predictor of overall survival and recurrence-free survival in HCC. In parallel, the FAIS exhibited stable and accurate performance at predicting prognosis based on the evaluation of Kaplan-Meier survival curves, receiver operator characteristic curves, decision curve analysis, and Harrell's C-index. Further investigation elucidated that the high-risk group presented an inferior prognosis with advanced clinical traits and a high mutation frequency of TP53, whereas the low-risk group was characterized by superior CD8(+) T cell infiltration, a higher TIS score, and a lower TIDE score. Additionally, patients in the low-risk group might yield more benefits from immunotherapy.Conclusion: The FAIS was an excellent scoring system that could stratify HCC patients and might serve as a promising tool to guide surveillance, improve prognosis, and facilitate clinical management.