Clinical Diagnostic Accuracy of Early/Advanced Parkinson Disease An Updated Clinicopathologic Study

Objective To update data for diagnostic accuracy of a clinical diagnosis of Parkinson disease (PD) using neuropathologic diagnosis as the gold standard. Methods Data from the Arizona Study of Aging and Neurodegenerative Disorders (AZSAND) were used to determine the predictive value of a clinical PD diagnosis. Two clinical diagnostic confidence levels were used, possible PD (PossPD, never treated or not responsive) and probable PD (ProbPD, 2/3 cardinal clinical signs and responsive to dopaminergic medications). Neuropathologic diagnosis was the gold standard. Results Based on the first visit to AZSAND, 15/54 (27.8%) PossPD participants and 138/163 (84.7%) ProbPD participants had confirmed PD. PD was confirmed in 24/34 (70.6%) ProbPD with <5 years and 114/128 (89.1%) with >= 5 years disease duration. Using the consensus final clinical diagnosis following death, 161/187 (86.1%) ProbPD had neuropathologically confirmed PD. Diagnostic accuracy for ProbPD improved if included motor fluctuations, dyskinesias, and hyposmia, and hyposmia for PossPD. Conclusions This updated study confirmed lower clinical diagnostic accuracy for elderly, untreated or poorly responsive PossPD participants and for ProbPD with <5 years of disease duration, even when medication responsive. Caution continues to be needed when interpreting clinical studies of PD, especially studies of early disease, that do not have autopsy confirmation. Classification of Evidence This study provides Class II evidence that a clinical diagnosis of ProbPD at the first visit identifies participants who will have pathologically confirmed PD with a sensitivity of 82.6% and a specificity of 86.0%.