An Analysis of Hazardous Chemical Accidents in China between 2006 and 2017

被引：42

作者：

Zhao, Laijun ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Qian, Ying ^{[4
]}

Hu, Qing-Mi ^{[3
]}

Jiang, Ran ^{[3
]}

Li, Meiting ^{[2
]}

Wang, Xulei ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Sino US Global Logist Inst, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China

[2] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, China Inst Urban Governance, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China

[3] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Antai Coll Econ & Management, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China

[4] Shanghai Univ, Sch Management, Shanghai 200444, Peoples R China

[5] Qingdao Agr Univ, Coll Econ & Management, Qingdao 266109, Peoples R China

来源：

SUSTAINABILITY | 2018年 / 10卷 / 08期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

hazardous chemical accidents; safety management evaluation; poisson regression analysis; Kuznets curve; time series model; SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT; MATERIALS INCIDENTS; RISK ANALYSIS; PENNSYLVANIA; TRANSPORT; INJURIES; INDUSTRY; MODEL;

D O I：

10.3390/su10082935

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

From the perspective of characteristics and causes, probability and forecast, and safety management evaluation, this paper analyzes 3974 hazardous chemical casualty accidents that occurred between 2006 and 2017 in China. The trends, monthly and hourly distributions, lifecycles, chemical and accident types, and the direct and indirect causes of casualty accidents are analyzed first. To estimate the probability of casualty accidents, the Poisson regression model is employed. The time series model is developed to forecast the number of casualty accidents. The safety management of hazardous chemicals is evaluated based on an inverted U-shaped curve that fits the relationship between the number of casualty accidents and petrochemical industry outputs. Moreover, measures for improving the safety management of hazardous chemicals are provided based on the analysis, forecast, and evaluation. The results show that the probability of 200-600 casualty accidents occurring per year in China is 59.10%. Sixteen of thirty provinces are identified as having better safety management with regard to hazardous chemicals.

引用

页数：18

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