Influence of foraging behavior and host spatial distribution on the localized spread of the emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis

Management programs for invasive species are often developed at a regional or national level, but physical intervention generally takes place over relatively small areas occupied by newly founded, isolated populations. The ability to predict how local habitat variation affects the expansion of such newly founded populations is essential for efficiently targeting resources to slow the spread of an invasive species. We assembled a coupled map lattice model that simulates the local spread of newly founded colonies of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire), a devastating forest insect pest of ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees. Using this model, we investigated the spread of A. planipennis in environments with different Fraxinus spp. distributions, and explored the consequences of ovipositional foraging behavior on the local spread of A. planipennis. Simulations indicate that increased larval density, resulting from lower host tree density or higher initial population sizes, can increase the spread rate during the first few years after colonization by increasing a density-dependent developmental rate and via host resource depletion. Both the radial spread rate and population size were greatly influenced by ovipositional foraging behavior. Two known behaviors of ovipositing A. planipennis females, attraction towards areas with high ash tree density and attraction to stressed trees, had opposing effects on spread. Results from this model illustrate the significant influence of resource distribution and foraging behavior on localized spread, and the importance of these factors when formulating strategies to monitor and manage invasive pests.