Development of Regression-Based Models to Predict Fecal Bacteria Numbers at Select Sites within the Illinois River Watershed, Arkansas and Oklahoma, USA

The Illinois River Watershed is a multi-facet basin with ecological and economic importance to its local stakeholders in northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma, USA. The numbers, transport and sources of fecal bacteria in streams was identified as a research priority of the USDA NRI Water and Watershed Program in 2006, and the objective of this study was to evaluate the relation between fecal bacteria and other measured physicochemical parameters in water samples collected from selected sites throughout the Illinois River Watershed. An existing database (i.e., National Water Information Systems, NWIS) from the US Geological Survey (USGS) was used in this project. The data obtained includes discharge, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, Escherichia coli (E. coli), fecal coliform, and fecal streptococci among several other physic-chemical parameters. A synthetic model, based on multi-regression analysis, was developed to predict fecal bacteria numbers at these selected sites based on available USGS NWIS data, and the multiple regressions were significant at almost every site for all three bacteria groups. However, the physicochemical parameters used in the equations were very different across sites and fecal bacteria groups, suggesting that the development of such predictive models is site and bacteria group specific even within one watershed.