Are low back pain and low physical capacity risk indicators for dropout among recently qualified eldercare workers? A follow-up study

Background: A high job turnover and dropout among eldercare workers has led to a significant shortage of qualified manpower in the Danish eldercare sector. Objectives: The predictive effect of some non-work-related causes for leaving the eldercare sector 2 years after qualification, physical capacity, duration, and severity of previous low back pain, was investigated. Design and setting: A 2-year prospective cohort study of all the Danish eldercare workers, who finished their education during 2004 (n = 6347). Questionnaire data from 2004 were followed up by register data on attachment to labour market, educational status, and association to trade from Statistics Denmark in 2006. Methods: Data on physical capacity, duration, and severity of low back pain the last 12 months among the female participants were analysed by multinomial logistic regression to estimate odds-ratios for being either in the eldercare sector, in other health- and welfare sectors, in all other sectors, under education, or outside labour market, 2 years after qualification. Results: Disability due to and duration of low back pain were significant predictors for dropout from the eldercare sector 2 years after qualification. Low physical capacity was not. Data on duration of low back pain suggest a trend towards a dose-response relationship: The longer the duration of low back pain, the higher odds for dropout. Conclusions: Low back pain and disability due to low back pain during the last year of education were independent predictors for dropout from the eldercare sector 2 years after qualification. However, low self-rated physical capacity did not predict job dropout or turnover.