The MJO Cycle Forcing of the North Atlantic Circulation: Intervention Experiments with the Community Earth System Model

A three-dimensional evolution of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) diabatic heating for October March from satellite data is constructed: the heating propagates eastward for three cycles, modulated by the likelihood for a given MJO phase to occur on a given calendar day. This heating is added to the temperature tendencies of each member of an ensemble of 48 (1 October-31 March) simulations with the Community Earth System Model. The leading two most predictable modes of the planetary wave vertically integrated total (added plus model generated) heating capture 81% of the ensemble-mean variance and form an eastward-propagating oscillation with very high signal-to-noise ratio. The two most predictable modes of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere 200-hPa height form an oscillation, as do those of the 300-hPa height tendency due to synoptic vorticity flux convergence, the 200-hPa Rossby wave source, and the envelope transient kinetic energy. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO +) occurs 15-25 days after the MJO convection crosses the 90 degrees E meridian, supported by synoptic vorticity flux convergence and a distinct pattern of Rossby wave source. The daily North Atlantic circulation anomalies are categorized into four circulation regimes with a cluster analysis. The NAO + and NAO- are equally likely in the control model runs, but the NAO + is 10% more likely in the model runs with heating, compared to a difference of 14% in reanalyses. The daily occurrence of the NAO+ regime in the heating ensemble shows maxima at times when the leading two optimal modes of height also indicate NAO + but also shows maxima at other times.