The Belt and Road Initiative's effect on supply-chain trade: evidence from structural gravity equations

被引：34
作者：
Kohl, Tristan [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Groningen, Fac Econ & Business, POB 800, NL-9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands
来源：
CAMBRIDGE JOURNAL OF REGIONS ECONOMY AND SOCIETY | 2019年 / 12卷 / 01期
关键词：
China; Belt and Road Initiative; free trade agreements; infrastructure; gravity model; trade predictions; INFRASTRUCTURE; AGREEMENTS; COSTS;
D O I：
10.1093/cjres/rsy036
中图分类号：
F0 [经济学]; F1 [世界各国经济概况、经济史、经济地理]; C [社会科学总论];
学科分类号：
0201 ; 020105 ; 03 ; 0303 ;
摘要：
This article considers the effect of China's Belt and Road Initiative on supply-chain trade for 64 economies in the period 2002-2011. We employ a structural gravity equation to estimate the impact of trade-cost reducing measuresnotably infrastructural improvements and the creation of free trade agreementson supply-chain trade and welfare in general equilibrium. We find that infrastructural investments will yield asymmetric benefits to China, Russia and Southeast Asian countries stemming from greater European market access. Our results also suggest that China's alternatives to foster (inter)regional economic growth through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Trans-Pacific Partnership offer much less attractive economic prospects.
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页码：77 / 104
页数：28
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