Can spatial planning really mitigate carbon dioxide emissions in urban areas? A case study in Taipei, Taiwan

Spatial planning plays an increasingly significant role in climate change mitigation by providing energy efficient settlements and promoting the utilization of renewable energy resources. However, the effect of urban spatial planning on spatial pattern of carbon dioxide emissions in cities is rarely discussed. The relationships between the changes in urban zoning plans and carbon dioxide emissions of major economic sectors has yet to be investigated on a scale smaller than an entire city. Using the Taipei metropolitan area as a case study, this study hypothesizes that: (1) carbon dioxide emissions have a spatial dimension within the city due mainly to the heterogeneous nature of land use activities and urbanization, and (2) changes in spatial planning can influence the urban form, and consequentially affect carbon dioxide emissions through changes in traffic demand and energy consumption. A downscaling analysis approach was used to estimate carbon dioxide emissions of different sectors for each administrative district in the Taipei metropolitan area. The analytical results reveal that the total carbon dioxide emissions of the four sectors in the Taipei metropolitan area increased with the increases in the growth of urban planned zones during the period 1981-2011. The carbon dioxide emission increases were correlated with the distribution of land uses in each administrative district. A negative correlation was found between the population density and the per-capita carbon dioxide emissions in the transportation sector. The compact development and planning of urban transit systems are believed to be the source of decreasing per capita carbon dioxide emissions. While many studies have emphasized that spatial planning is important addressing climate change, this work demonstrates understanding the historic links between spatial planning and carbon dioxide is equally valuable.