Attributing Historical Changes in Probabilities of Record-Breaking Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events

被引：32

作者：

Shiogama, Hideo ^{[1
]}

Imada, Yukiko ^{[2
]}

Mori, Masato ^{[4
]}

Mizuta, Ryo ^{[2
]}

Stone, Daithi ^{[5
]}

Yoshida, Kohei ^{[2
]}

Arakawa, Osamu ^{[6
]}

Ikeda, Mikiko ^{[7
]}

Takahashi, Chiharu ^{[3
]}

Arai, Miki ^{[3
]}

Ishii, Masayoshi ^{[2
]}

Watanabe, Masahiro ^{[3
]}

Kimoto, Masahide ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan

[2] Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

[3] Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan

[4] Univ Tokyo, Res Ctr Adv Sci & Technol, Tokyo, Japan

[5] Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Computat Res Div, Berkeley, CA USA

[6] Univ Tsukuba, Fac Life & Environm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

[7] Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan

来源：

SOLA | 2016年 / 12卷

关键词：

PART I; 20TH-CENTURY; WEATHER; CLIMATE; TRENDS;

D O I：

10.2151/sola.2016-045

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

We describe two unprecedented large (100-member), longterm (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the "Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)". We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicate that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001-2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.

引用

页码：225 / 231

页数：7

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