Water Supply Gross Prediction in China based on Holt Exponential Smoothing Model and Grey System Model

With the development of economy in China, the water supply gross is increasing year by year. Based on the real water supply gross official published from 1997 to 2011, forecasting of water supply is completed in this paper. In forecast, Holt exponential smoothing model and grey system model are used respectively. And the predicted results from the two methods are contrasted and analyzed. The results show that the water supply gross in the future can be predicted relative accurately either Holt exponential smoothing model or grey system model. The predicted relative error in the near future is about 1% and the predicted results are credible. From the predicted trend point of view, it seems that Holt exponential smoothing model is better than grey system model.