An assessment of opportunities and challenges for cross-border electricity trade for Bangladesh using SWOT-AHP approach

Regional electricity cooperation in South Asia, especially between Bhutan, Bangladesh, India and Nepal (BBIN), has been under debate recently. Recent discussions have gone beyond bilateral electricity trade to regional or tripartite trade. With limited energy resources and rapidly rising demand, cross-border electricity trade has been viewed as an alternative source of cleaner and lower price electricity supply in the long-term alongside domestic generation in Bangladesh. In this context, this study identifies barriers and opportunities for electricity trading for Bangladesh, focusing on the stakeholders' perceptions. Theses stakeholder are representatives of public organizations in the power sector, Independent Power Producers, academia, geopolitical experts and research institutes. A well-structured SWOT analysis, in combination with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), is used to identify the SWOT factors and subsequently rank them. Our analysis shows that the weaknesses and threats are more pronounced than strengths and opportunities for electricity trade from the viewpoint of Bangladesh. Several possible strategies are proposed to overcome the hindrances. Among the proposed strategies, a key strategy is the signing of a trilateral electricity trading agreement with joint development and implementation of cross-border power projects. However, to achieve these strategies, it will require meticulous planning, political will, and visionary leadership across BBIN sub-region.