The drag effect of coal consumption on economic growth in China during 1953-2013

被引：71

作者：

Xu, Jing ^{[1
]}

Zhou, Min ^{[1
]}

Li, Hailong ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] China Univ Min & Technol, Sch Management, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

[2] China Univ Min & Technol, State Key Lab Geomech & Deep Underground Engn, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

来源：

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING | 2018年 / 129卷

关键词：

Coal consumption; Economic growth; Drag; Partial least squares; China; SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT; ENERGY-CONSUMPTION; NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES; OECD COUNTRIES; CO2; EMISSIONS; UNIT-ROOT; IMPACT; INDIA; OIL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.08.027

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Rapid economic growth in China is largely dependent on coal consumption, so the scarcity of coal represents a major challenge for sustainable development in the country. A model predicting the drag effect of coal consumption on economic growth in China would be useful for decision-making. In this paper, we apply Romer's growth drag theory and estimate the drag effect of coal consumption on economic growth using a Johansen cointegration test, partial least squares regression, and a drag equation. The results show that the growth drag caused by coal consumption is 0.0252. This means that regardless of other factors, the economic growth rate will be 6.34% in 2020 due to the constraints of coal consumption. We also present suggestions for improving the efficiency and controlling the scale of coal usage during economic development. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：326 / 332

页数：7

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