Uncertainty-Driven Ontology for Decision Support System in Air Transport

Recent electronics advances for air transport have increased aircraft density, volume, and frequency in the airspace. These advances come with control requirements for precise navigation, coordinated Air Traffic Management (ATM) or Unmanned aircraft system Traffic Management (UTM), and proactive security. The tight tolerances of aircraft control necessitate management of spatial uncertainty, timeliness precision, and confidence assessment, which have, respectively, variance, reliability, and veracity situation awareness and assessment metrics. Meeting such airspace requirements involves the ability to evaluate how those metrics impact ATM/UTM operations, making the complex interrelationships between them a key aspect for coping with the fast worldwide growth of air transport. To support such growth, ontologies have been proposed as a promising technology for making such interrelationships explicit, while facilitating communication between avionics devices. This paper investigates the use of ontologies in support of electronic ATM/UTM operations, highlighting the use of Uncertainty Representation and the Reasoning Evaluation Framework (URREF) in realizing the ability for Air Traffic Controllers (ATCs) to semantically communicate with aircraft operators concerning physical airspace coordination. Using Avionics Analytics Ontology (AAO) endowed with the URREF, application examples based on two airspace situations are presented. Example results for northeast coast of Brazil atmospheric volcanic ash as well as for the Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption show a 65-80% success in providing warnings to ATCs for airspace control. The paper demonstrates that an ontology-based UTM enhances the capability and accuracy of an ATM to suggest rerouting in the presence of remarkably deteriorated weather conditions.