Rainfall governs picocyanobacterial ecology in a tropical estuary (Guanabara Bay, Brazil)

This study tests if rainfall regime and estuary hydrodynamics affect ecological picocyanobacterial patterns. We statistically related rainfall with picocyanobacteria (flow cytometry) and water quality data from a seven-year-long survey of Guanabara Bay (GB). The quality of GB's water varies spatially, depending on pollution hotspots, tidal influence, and water circulation patterns. It also varies seasonally, depending on the rainfall regime. Our results showed that rainfall regularly makes water quality and microbiology of the inner estuarine regions more like the tributaries' environment. We found that phycocyanin-rich and phycoerythrin-rich picocyanobacterial abundances are associated with riverine and marine waters, respectively. Besides affecting GB's water quality, rainfall governs its picocyanobacterial distribution and ecology. Thus, climate changes may influence the balance of the picocyanobacterial groups in tropical estuaries. Furthermore, the omnipresence of picocyanobacterial groups found in GB, such as Synechococcus and Cyanobium, highlights their ecological role in tropical estuaries, as seen in the open ocean.