Assessing the Contribution of Demographic Growth, Climate Change, and the Refugee Crisis on Seawater Intrusion in the Tripoli Aquifer

As a major hotspot of climate change, Lebanon suffers from a water resources crisis enhanced by the increase of anthropogenic activities. In this paper, the impacts of climate change and of the Syrian refugee crisis are combined with the impact of demographic growth to assess their aggregated impact on seawater intrusion in the Tripoli aquifer. A hydrogeological model is used to assess the seawater intrusion evolution for the next 25 years with respect to three phenomena: seawater rise, variation of incoming freshwater flux, and the change of the extraction rate of the pumping wells. Our study shows that the freshwater/seawater interface will move forward inland about 103 m in the next 25 years, leading to the salinization of the aquifer at the position of the pumping wells. Only about 1% of the advancement of the interface is associated with seawater rise; the remaining contributions are 79% from climate change and 20% from demographic growth. Adding the impact of migration reduces the contribution of climate change from 79% to 52%. The results suggest that the remediation solutions and recommendations should take into account the long-term impacts of climate change and the impact of population migration.