Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030

被引：1737

作者：

Lobell, David B. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Burke, Marshall B. ^{[1
,2
]}

Tebaldi, Claudia ^{[4
]}

Mastrandrea, Michael D. ^{[1
]}

Falcon, Walter P. ^{[1
,2
]}

Naylor, Rosamond L. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Food Secur & Environm Program, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[2] Stanford Univ, Freeman Spogli Inst Int Studies, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[3] Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA 94550 USA

[4] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80305 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2008年 / 319卷 / 5863期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1126/science.1152339

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food- insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food- insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.

引用

页码：607 / 610

页数：4

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