When every drop counts: Analysis of Droughts in Brazil for the 1901-2013 period

被引:62
作者
Awange, Joseph L. [1 ,2 ]
Mpelasoka, Freddie [2 ]
Goncalves, Rodrigo M. [2 ]
机构
[1] Curtin Univ, Western Australian Ctr Geodesy, Inst Geosci Res, Perth, WA 6102, Australia
[2] Fed Univ Pernambuco UFPE, Dept Cartog Engn, Geodet Sci & Technol Geoinformat Post Graduat Pro, Recife, PE, Brazil
关键词
Drought; risk management policies; Brazil; climate variability; living with drought; vulnerability; STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX; NORTHEAST BRAZIL; CLIMATE-CHANGE; VARIABILITY; IMPACTS; TRENDS; MODEL; WATER;
D O I
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.031
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
To provide information useful in policy formulation and management of drought impacts in Brazil, in this study, a sequence of drought events based on monthly rainfall of 1901-2013 on -25 km x 25 km grid are derived at 4 timescales that include short-timescales (3-month and 6-month) and medium to long-timescales (12-month and 24-month). Subsequently, probability of drought occurrences, intensity, duration and areal-extent are calculated. The probabilities of occurrence of severe and extreme droughts at short-timescales are 1 in 12 and 1 in 66 years, respectively, all over the country. Atmediumto long-timescales, the probability of severe droughts is about 1 in 20 years in northern Brazil, and 1 in 10 years in the south. The probabilities of extreme droughts are 1 in 9 and 1 in 12 years over northern Brazil and in the south, respectively. In general, no evidence of significant (alpha = 0.05) trend is detected in drought frequency, intensity, and duration over the last 11 decades (since 1901) at all the 4 timescales. The drought areal-extent show increasing trends of 3.4%/decade over Brazil for both 3-month and 6-month timescales. However, the trend increases for the 12-month and 24-month timescales are relatively smaller, i.e., 2.4%/decade and 0.5%/decade, respectively. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:1472 / 1488
页数:17
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