Motivated Reasoning and Public Opinion Perception

Theorists posit that a public-unlike a mass of individuals-forms opinions through awareness of multiple viewpoints and recognition of opposition in a polity. Whether individuals pursue information on others' political preferences is another matter. While some are motivated to seek as much information as possible, others seek information that supports their own preference. This differential pattern of awareness has implications for individuals' assessment of collective preferences. This article extends recent research on motivated reasoning to test whether accuracy goals (i.e., reaching correct conclusions) and directional goals (i.e., reaching preferred conclusions) affect perceptions of majority preferences. Results show that motivated reasoning affects overestimates of support, of both national-level opinion and modal opinion in discussion groups, even after controlling for partisan strength, demographics, news exposure, political knowledge, and interest. Implications for considered public opinion are discussed in the conclusion.