Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in small pacific island countries

被引：14

作者：

Kumar, Nikeel Nishkar ^{[1
,2
]}

Patel, Arvind ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Auckland Univ Technol, Fac Business Econ & Law, Sch Econ, Auckland, New Zealand

[2] Univ South Pacific, Sch Accounting Finance & Econ, Suva, Fiji Islands, Fiji

来源：

CURRENT ISSUES IN TOURISM | 2022年 / 25卷 / 03期

关键词：

COVID-19; UNWTO International Tourism 2020 Scenarios; pacific island countries; Tourism; Remittances; TOURISM;

D O I：

10.1080/13683500.2021.1963214

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper studies the economic impact of COVID-19 in Fiji, Tonga, and Vanuatu. The UNWTO's International Tourism 2020 Scenarios and the World Bank's projected decline in remittance flows are treated as negative COVID-19 led shocks in the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Negative tourism shocks are significant for all three countries, whereas negative remittance shocks are significant for Tonga only. Thus, the economic effects of COVID-19 are propagated by tourism for all three countries, whilst remittance is a COVID-19 transmission channel for Tonga only. Simulations with the projected declines in tourism and remittances suggest that Vanuatu would experience the greatest decline in growth and highest uncertainty, whilst Tonga would face the lowest decline and uncertainty.

引用

页码：394 / 404

页数：11

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