Climate stresses and its impact towards food sufficiency: a case in Bantul regency Yogyakarta-Indonesia

Biomass production is influenced by climate, soil, and water. The most uncontrolled factor is climate. Climate change increases the hazard of hydrometeorological disasters such as floods and drought which influences harvest area an agricultural commodity. This study was purposed to identify and analyze the impact of climate stress on food sufficiency in Bantul Regency, at Special Region of Yogyakarta. Later, it was applied to recommend a strategy in achieving food sufficiency in Bantul. Here, dynamic modeling was applied to simulate the supply and demand for food. Rice is staple food in Indonesia, so it was selected in the simulation of food sufficiency in this study. The modeling used rice production, population, urbanization, and rice field area data released by the Statistic Agency of Bantul. The range of data was 10 (ten) years i.e 2010 to 2019. MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) was used to validate the model. The MAPE of rice production was 8.36%, so the modelling of climate stresses and its impact towards food sufficiency was accepted. This study identified that food sufficiency in Bantul would finish in 2026. The increasing crop index from 2.34 to 3.00 could extend the period of food sufficiency up to 10 years.