Validation of the Larissa Heart Failure Risk Score for risk strati fication in acute heart failure

Background: The LHFRS is a simple score derived from three factors (history of hypertension, history of coronary artery disease/myocardial infarction, and red blood cell distribution width) deployed for the risk stratification of AHF in Greek population. This study aimed to validate the Larissa Heart Failure Risk Score (LHFRS) in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) in a Japanese population. Methods: We performed post-hoc analysis of 1670 consecutive patients enrolled in the REALITY-AHF. In all, 964 patients were finally enrolled. Exclusion criteria included patients with anemia, malignancies and sepsis. The primary outcome was defined as a composite of all-cause mortality and/or heart failure readmission, and the secondary outcome was defined as all-cause mortality. Results: The median admission LHFRS value was 1 (interquartile range [IQR]: 0–2). During a median follow-up of 365 (IQR: 161–365) days, the primary and secondary outcomes were observed in 321 and 157 patients, respectively. LHFRS was an independent predictor of both the primary (adjusted hazard ratio per 1-point increase, 95% confidence interval: 1.17 [1.04–1.32], p = 0.011), and the secondary outcomes (1.31 [1.12–1.55], p = 0.001). Patients with higher LHFRS scores (≥2) exhibited significantly worse outcomes than those with lower scores (<2) both for the primary outcome (1.40 [1.07–1.83], p = 0.014) and the secondary outcome (1.60 [1.09–2.34], p = 0.015). Additionally, LHFRS revealed an excellent goodness of fit (observed versus predicted outcomes) for predicting both the primary and the secondary outcomes (p > 0.99 and p = 0.99, respectively). Conclusion: The simple LHFRS was proved as a reliable predictor of outcomes in patients with AHF. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.