The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change

被引：171

作者：

Satoh, Yusuke ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Yoshimura, Kei ^{[4
]}

Pokhrel, Yadu ^{[5
]}

Kim, Hyungjun ^{[2
,4
,6
]}

Shiogama, Hideo ^{[1
]}

Yokohata, Tokuta ^{[1
]}

Hanasaki, Naota ^{[1
]}

Wada, Yoshihide ^{[3
,7
]}

Burek, Peter ^{[3
]}

Byers, Edward ^{[3
]}

Schmied, Hannes Mueller ^{[8
,9
]}

Gerten, Dieter ^{[10
,11
,12
]}

Ostberg, Sebastian ^{[10
,11
]}

Gosling, Simon Newland ^{[13
]}

Boulange, Julien Eric Stanslas ^{[1
]}

Oki, Taikan ^{[14
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

[2] Korea Adv Inst Sci & Technol, Moon Soul Grad Sch Future Strategy, Daejeon, South Korea

[3] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria

[4] Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Tokyo, Japan

[5] Michigan State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA

[6] Korea Adv Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Daejeon, South Korea

[7] Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, Utrecht, Netherlands

[8] Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Phys Geog, Frankfurt, Germany

[9] Senckenberg Leibniz Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr F, Frankfurt, Germany

[10] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany

[11] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam, Germany

[12] Humboldt Univ, Geog Dept, Berlin, Germany

[13] Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham, England

[14] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Engn, Tokyo, Japan

来源：

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 2022年 / 13卷 / 01期

基金：

新加坡国家研究基金会;

关键词：

GLOBAL EMERGENCE; WATER; MODEL; UNCERTAINTY; SIMULATION; 21ST-CENTURY; TEMPERATURE; PROJECTIONS; ADJUSTMENT; EXTREMES;

D O I：

10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Significant regional disparities exist in the time left to prepare for unprecedented drought and how much we can buy time depending on climate scenarios. Specific regions pass this timing by the middle of 21st century even with stringent mitigation. Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.

引用

页数：11

共 94 条

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