Progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia: Results of a simulation model

被引：40

作者：

Peters, Mary Linton B. ^{[1
,2
]}

Eckel, Andrew ^{[2
]}

Mueller, Peter P. ^{[2
]}

Tramontano, Angela C. ^{[2
]}

Weaver, Davis T. ^{[2
]}

Lietz, Anna ^{[2
]}

Hur, Chin ^{[2
]}

Kong, Chung Yin ^{[2
]}

Pandharipande, Pan, V ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Beth Israel Deaconess Med Ctr, Div Hematol Oncol, 330 Brookline Ave,Shapiro 9, Boston, MA 02215 USA

[2] Massachusetts Gen Hosp, Inst Technol Assessment, Boston, MA 02114 USA

来源：

PANCREATOLOGY | 2018年 / 18卷 / 08期

关键词：

pancreatic cancer; pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia; simulation modeling; HIGH-RISK; COLORECTAL-CANCER; PREVALENCE; MUTATIONS; EVOLUTION; LESIONS; IMPACT; BREAST; LIFE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.pan.2018.07.009

中图分类号：

R57 [消化系及腹部疾病];

学科分类号：

摘要：

Objectives: To gain insight into the natural history and carcinogenesis pathway of Pancreatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia (PanIN) lesions by building a calibrated simulation model of PanIN progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) Methods: We revised a previously validated simulation model of solid PDAC, calibrating the model to fit data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published literature on PanIN prevalence by age. We estimated the likelihood of progression from PanIN states (1, 2, and 3) to PDAC and the time between PanIN onset and PDAC (dwell time). We evaluated a hypothetical intervention to test for and treat PanIN 3 lesions to estimate the potential benefits from PanIN detection. Results: We estimated the lifetime probability of progressing from PanIN 1 to PDAC to be 1.5% (men), 1.3% (women). Progression from PanIN 1 to PDAC took 33.6 years and 35.3 years, respectively, and from PanIN 3 to PDAC took 11.3 years and 12.3 years. A hypothetical test for PanIN 3 detection and treatment could provide a maximum, average life expectancy gain of 40 days. Conclusions: Our modeling analysis estimates PanINs have a relatively indolent course to PDAC, supporting the feasibility of potential future early detection strategies. (C) 2018 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：928 / 934

页数：7

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