Probabilistic modelling of deterioration mechanisms for concrete structures

The paper will initially review sources of structural deterioration, with emphasis on chloride-induced corrosion of reinforced concrete structures. A critical review of deterioration models for corrosion initiation and propagation and their effect on structural performance will be described. It will be observed that many stochastic deterioration models exist and that they can produce divergent predictions of corrosion initiation and propagation. The paper will also examine the high temporal and spatial uncertainty and variability of existing deterioration models and the impact this might have on decision-making criteria when determining the "safety" of existing structures, optimising maintenance and repair strategies or service life prediction. One issue, for example, is how accurate are long-term reliability predictions of deteriorating structures? The importance of including spatial variability in probabilistic models of deterioration is highlighted.